O colapso do dólar e o fim da Fed

Karl Whelan comenta Maintaining Central-Bank Solvency under New-Style Central Banking, um paper de Ricardo Reis e Robert Hall que tem dado que falar. Is the Fed going to go bust? é mais um artigo acerca de uma questão que tem gerado polémica entre os economistas: pode um banco central ir à falência?

In particular, Hall and Reis are concerned about the Fed’s ability to pay interest on the reserve accounts that banks hold with it. Payments made to Fed ultimately arrive via deductions from various reserve accounts that institutions such as private banks or the Treasury hold with it while interest paid on reserves to banks takes the form of additions to the relevant bank reserve accounts.

Given this structure, if the interest payments made to the Fed don’t cover the interest payments it makes on reserves, then the total stock of reserves will increase. Hall and Reis express a concern that this process of additional money creation stemming from such an increase in the stock of reserves would result in higher inflation. (Exactly how this gets so bad that the currency ends up being dissolved is a little unclear to me.)

So it turns out that Hall and Reis are not actually concerned about the Fed going bust in the usual sense of being unable to meet its obligations. Rather they express a concern the Fed might only be able to meet its obligations by creating a quantity of money that generates high inflation.  Alternatively, they discuss a scenario in which the Fed keeps the interest rate on reserves low to restrict the growth in total reserves but this low interest rate results in a loss of control of the price level.

Sinais dos tempos

Base monetária (moeda e notas em circulação, mais depósitos no banco central) versus agregado monetário M2 para os Estados Unidos. O Banco Central apenas controla o primeiro, pelo que um desvio entre os dois indicadores sinaliza (ou pode sinalizar) a incapacidade da autoridade monetária de manter tracção à economia real.

Sem Título

Por falta de dados, não é possível comparar este período com a Grande Depressão.