Provavelmente não podemos saber ao certo, mas podemos ir um pouco mais longe do que o ‘achismo’ típico destas alturas. O terrorismo islâmico não é tão recente quanto isso, e por esta altura já há uma dose considerável de dados compilados acerca do fenómeno. Esses dados têm inspirado vários estudos, alguns dos quais com conclusões bastante inesperado. Deixo em baixo dois dos que me parecem mais sérios, chamando a atenção para as implicações do primeiro.
The long-run effect of 9/11, de Eric Gould e Esteban Klor
Terror attacks by Islamic groups are likely to induce a backlash against the Muslim community, and therefore, tend to raise the costs of assimilation for Muslims in the West. We test this hypothesis by exploiting variation across states in the number of hate crimes against Muslims in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. Our results show that Muslim immigrants living in states which experienced the sharpest increase in hate crimes also exhibit: (i) greater chances of marrying within their own ethnic group; (ii) higher fertility; (iii) lower female labor force participation; and (iv) lower English proficiency. Importantly, the state-level increase in hate crimes against Muslims after the 9/11 attacks was not correlated with the pre-existing state-level trend in any of these assimilation outcomes. Moreover, we do not find similar effects for any other immigrant group after the 9/11 attacks. Overall, our results show that the backlash induced by the 9/11 attacks increased the ethnic identity and demographic strength of the Muslim immigrant community in the U.S. These findings shed light on the increasing use of terror attacks on Western countries, with the concurrent rise in social and political tensions surrounding the assimilation of Muslim immigrants in several European countries.
What makes a Terrorist, de Alan Krueger:
What makes a terrorist, then, is someone with a fanatical commitment to pursuing a grievance combined with the perception that there are few alternatives available other than terrorism for pursuing that grievance – and a terrorist organisation or cell willing to deploy a would-be terrorist. This explanation is further developed in my book. Poverty and lack of education – the explanations commonly cited by politicians including George Bush, Al Gore and Tony Blair – play very little, if any, role. In fact, education may have the opposite effect than many people expect because more highly educated people are more likely to become involved politically and are more likely to strongly hold opinions. Increasing educational attainment does many wonderful things for a country and its people, but I do not think the evidence suggests it brings about complete consensus in society. If we are to address terrorism in part through education, I argue we should focus more on the content of education, not just educational attainment.
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