Saídas para a Grécia

Greek choices after the elections, por Zsolt Darvas. Há uma ponta solta que não está bem trabalhada: apresenta-se a saída do euro como impossível como o argumento de que seria acompanhada de uma recessão profunda, deterioração orçamental e consequente restrição financeira – esquecendo-se que, depois de abandonado o euro, a Grécia voltaria novamente a ter soberania monetária e poderia financiar o défice com emissão monetária.

Mas, fora isso, isto é do melhor que se tem publicado sobre o tema.

What are the chances for such a comprehensive agreement which could be claimed as victory by both sides? I think it is higher than many commentators think, for two main reasons.

  • First, lack of an agreement may lead to Grexit, which would be so bad for all that both the new Greek leadership and euro-area partners have very strong incentives to avoid it.
  • Second, there are some reasonable options to agree on the reduction of the debt burden and easing fiscal policy, as I outlined above. Thereby, the new Greek leadership could claim that it achieved a major reduction in the cost of debt service and got some fiscal space to ease the social pain and boost growth, while European partners could tell their people that they only extended the loan maturities and eliminated the gap between their own borrowing costs and their lending rate to Greece, thereby taxpayers should not suffer loss.

Certainly, negotiations may not work out nicely. We do not know yet if a government will be formed right after the elections, or a new election will be needed later; Greece may run out of time. When a government is formed, negotiations could be suspended, perhaps repeatedly, which would create further uncertainty. Such uncertainty would lead to deposit withdrawal from Greek banks and deteriorating economic and fiscal outlook. Some euro-area partners may say no to certain parts of the agreement even if other euro-area partners agree. Some members of the new Greek parliament may say no even if the new government and most of its parliamentary members are in support. I may have also incorrectly assumed that the responsible decision makers think rationally. Therefore, there could be many pitfalls for an agreement, yet the Grexit threat will be hanging over the negotiators like the sword of Damocles.

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