Confiança e crises financeiras

O que acontece quando um país com moeda própria e sem dívida externa perde a confiança dos mercados financeiros internacionais? O debate continua, com mais uma boa peça de Paul Krugman: Bowlesonomics versus Abenomics.

You can see why Japan was complaining about the high value of the yen. What was causing that? Not so much Chinese purchases, I’d argue, as ingrained deflation. Once the whole advanced world found itself with zero nominal interest rates, Japan — where people had come to expect deflation at around 1 percent a year, compared with expectations of around 2 percent inflation in the US and elsewhere — was offering higher real interest rates than its counterparts. The result was a strong yen, which was exactly what a liquidity-trap economy didn’t need.

As you can see, however, more recently the yen has declined steeply. What’s that about? The answer is, Abenomics, which has successfully, at least for now, convinced investors that the Bank of Japan has changed its spots and will keep the pedal to the metal for a long time even after moderate inflation sets in.

And think about it: what Abenomics is trying to do, although it’s not stated that way, is reduce investor confidence in Japanese bonds — it’s trying to convince buyers of JGBs that the value of those bonds will in fact be eroded by inflation, not swelled by deflation. So far, it has succeeded.

P.S.- Ver também as notas de leitura do mesmo Krugman.

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