Multiplicadores uma última vez

Ainda acerca de multiplicadores, vale a pena referir Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan, outro estudo da “nova vaga” do FMI acerca de política orçamental.

O estudo usa os habituais VAR para estimar multiplicadores de receita e despesa, chegando a conclusões qualitativamente semelhantes às de Fiscal Multipliers and the state of the economy. O seu valor acrescentado, face a este último, reside na extensa revisão bibliográfica que faz à investigação existente, cobrindo estudos empíricos e simulações via DSGE. Os autores acrescentam ainda uma nota final em que discutem os seus resultados e os tentam conciliar com o resto da literatura existente.

Finalmente, retiram-se também conclusões práticas no que diz respeito à composição e perfil temporal de processos de consolidação orçamental.

The finding that spending multipliers are larger—sometimes considerably—than tax multipliers already exist in the literature employing linear VARs. This difference is magnified further when regime switches are taken into account as the spending multiplier becomes bigger in downturns while the tax multiplier remains small. However, it is quite difficult to reconcile the whole set of results with a single theoretical approach. A tax multiplier bigger than zero but smaller than the spending multiplier seems to conform with the prediction of the traditional Keynesian model. They can also be reconciled with a New-Keynesian model with rule-of-thumb consumers and distortionary taxation, where the tax cuts are mostly on lump-sum payments but the resulting increase in debt is repaid in the future by an increase in distortionary taxation (…)

The simulations show that frontloading fiscal consolidations tends to have harsher and more protracted adverse effects on output, without accelerating the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio relative to a more evenly-distributed consolidation. This can be problematic in periods of low confidence in the sovereign because failure of fiscal adjustment to have immediate visible effects on debt may further reduce credibility, pushing further up risk premia on government paper and ultimately making the consolidation more costly and less effective. Alongside, the simulations indicate that if a frontloaded consolidation is based primarily (60 percent and over) on cuts to expenditure, the debt-to-GDP ratio increases relative to the case in which a more gradual consolidation path is adopted (…)

The large fiscal legacies of the global financial crisis have reignited the debate around the impact of fiscal policy onto economic activity during fiscal consolidations. The analysis in this paper shows that withdrawing fiscal stimuli too quickly in economies where output is already contracting can prolong their recessions without generating the expected fiscal saving. This is particularly true if the consolidation is centred around cuts to public expenditure — likely reflecting the fact that reductions in public spending have powerful effects on the consumption of financially-constrained agents in the economy—and if the size of the consolidation is large. Large consolidations make recessions more likely even when made at an expansion time. From a policy perspective this is especially relevant for periods of positive, though low growth. Accordingly, frontloading consolidations during a recession seems to aggravate the costs of fiscal adjustment in terms of output loss, while it seems to greatly delay the reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio—which, in turn, can exacerbate market sentiment in a sovereign at times of low confidence, defying fiscal austerity efforts altogether. Again this is even truer in the case of consolidations based prominently on cuts to public spending. Thus, a gradual fiscal adjustment, with a balanced composition of cuts to expenditure and tax increases boosts the chances that the consolidation will successfully (and rapidly) translate into lower debt-to-GDP ratios.


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