Sabemos pouco acerca de ‘defaults’ e reestruturações. O estado incipiente do conhecimento económico acerca destes fenómenos resulta, em parte, da falta de bases de dados extensas e completas para análise quantitativa. Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950–2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts é um importante contributo para acrescentar informação a um domínio ainda pouco explorado. Para além de uma base de dados recheada, o estudo do FMI – elaborado com uma estrutura e num registo do tipo saiba tudo sobre – sistematiza as conclusões da melhor investigação feita até agora no campo das reestruturações de dívida soberana.
Borrowing costs and exclusion from capital markets New research indicates that the consequences of restructurings depend on the size of creditor losses. An increase in haircuts by 20 percentage points is associated with borrowing costs that are at least 50 basis points higher during the six years after the restructuring, and a lower likelihood of re-accessing capital markets.
Output and trade costs The academic literature agrees that debt crisis years are associated with a drop in GDP of between 2 and 5 percent per year. The size of this effect depends on the duration of the crisis, and whether it occurs simultaneously with banking and currency crises. Bilateral trade flows fall up to 7 percent after Paris Club restructurings, and for more than 10 years. However, it is difficult to conclude that these are causal effects, rather than correlations.
Financial Sector Implications Restructurings affect the holders of government papers, in particular banks, pension funds, and insurance companies. Debt exchanges can thereby endanger financial sector stability and contribute to a credit crunch. While bank bailouts have in the past contributed to sovereign funding pressures, debt restructurings have also contributed to banking sector distress, causing bank failures and bank runs, such as in Russia in 1998.
FDI Flows and Private Sector Access to Credit Recent research finds evidence for “top-down” risk spillovers from the sovereign to the private sector. Restructurings are associated with a drop in FDI of up to 2 percent of GDP per year. In addition, debt crises can be associated with a decrease in external borrowing. Corporate external loan and bond issuances have dropped by up to 40 percent. The size of this effect depends on the speed of restructuring and is stronger for defaults to private creditors.
Negotiation Costs and FeesThe expenses for financial and legal advisors can be substantial. Financial institutions may also demand fees to administer the exchange. During the 1980s, fees reached up to 2 percent of restructured volumes.