Agora que já passaram mais de seis meses desde a reestruturação da dívida pública grega, é altura de fazer o balanço. E dificilmente seria possível fazer um mais completo e detalhado do que The Greek debt Exchange: an autopsy, escrito em co-autoria pelo especialista em reestruturações Mitu Gulati.
O paper está cheio de informação fina e detalhada acerca do evento que assombrou a Europa durante meses. Um dos pontos em destaque é a comparação internacional, que mostra bem o tamanho da reestruturação grega, mesmo quando comparada com os casos da Rússia na década de 90 e do México dez anos antes. Leitura obrigatória para perceber uma autópsia que pode vir a ser repetida em breve. Com outro cadáver, obviamente.
First, the success of the Greek restructuring – in the sense of demonstrating that an orderly restructuring is indeed feasible in Europe even under exceedingly difficult conditions – makes it more likely that debt restructuring will be seriously considered as a policy option if additional European countries lose market access. This does not mean that the Greek restructuring is likely to become a new blueprint: other European countries may not wish to emulate it for reputational reasons, and it would be impossible to apply Greek-style haircuts to much larger countries such Italy or Spain without bankrupting large parts of the European financial sector. However, debt restructuring on voluntary or milder terms than in Greece has gained plausibility as an instrument for crisis resolution in Europe.
Second, even if for these reasons the Greek restructuring approach as a whole is unlikely to find many imitators, it contained some elements that may be worth imitating if other European countries are faced with the need to restructure their debts. The two-part negotiation structure involving first an understanding with large creditors followed by a take-it-or leave it offer proved to be a suitable vehicle given Greece‘s bank-dominated creditor structure (…) Finally, Greece has taught us that having bonds governed by local law is a boon to a nation seeking to restructure.
As a result, one implication of the Greek restructuring is to increase the feasibility of genuinely voluntary debt restructurings – meaning: without any changes in local law, without use of collective action clauses, and without any threats of non-payment – in European countries with large stocks of local-law debt. Rather than destroying the Eurozone, the Greek restructuring may have given Europe an emergency instrument that could help keep it together.