Mitos e soluções para a Grécia

Karl Whelan na Forbes, acerca da Grécia: For wrong-headed reasons, E.U. leaders are leaning toward a greek exit. O economista irlandês desmonta um mito – o de que a Grécia não está a cortar no défice – e explica por que é que a sua eventual saída do euro não pode ser ‘gerível’ pelas autoridades europeias.

The extent of public sector cuts are eye-popping: Spending on public sector wages is set to be down 23 percent this year relative to 2009; spending on social benefits is down 12 percent; capital spending is down 40 percent.  Without doubt, the Greek economy has many flaws and its weak tax collection regime is justifiably notorious.  But the fact remains that Greece’s politicians have imposed enormous austerity over the past few years and they and the Greek people deserve better than to be insulted in European newspapers every day of the week.

Let’s look at the second idea, that Europeans are being asked to sink money into a black hole to fund profligate Greeks.  Greece still has a large budget deficit but its primary balance is coming close to zero.  This means that Greece will be borrowing money over the next few years purely to pay the interest on its debts.  Most of this debt is now owed to Euro area member states so these borrowings will simply be recycled back to the rest of the EU.  Rather than pouring water into a desert, a better analogy is providing food aid to a country suffering famine and then insisting they export the food back again.

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